Shares of Uipath (NYSE: ) are down nearly 15% in premarket trading Thursday after the company released a weaker-thanexpected Q1 revenue forecast. The software maker reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 5c, well above the analyst consensus of 2.6c per share. Total revenue in the quarter came in at $289.7 million. For the first quarter, UiPath expects revenue in the range of $223 million to $225 million, missing the consensus estimates of $246.4 million. The company expects Q1 adjusted operating loss in the range of $25 million to $30 million. "We have built a global business that serves customers in more than 115 countries, including countries across eastern Europe and Russia," said the company's CEO Daniel Dines. Looking ahead, we feel confident in our market-leading position in automation and prospects for future growth at scale but believe it is prudent at this time to factor both our European exposure and go-to-market leadership transition into the financial outlook we are providing this afternoon. Credit Suisse analyst Phil Winslow believes PATH's guidance reflects significant conservatism. The analyst slashed the price target to $57.50 from the prior $75.00. To further frame the conservatism in terms of new vs. expansion business, FY2023 ARR guidance excluding headwinds would imply $0 ARR contribution from new customers and DBNRR declining from 145% to ~134% "despite maintaining a best-in-class range vs. 153% exiting FY2020. We reiterate our thesis that the market opportunity in terms of global automatable wages is both sizable and largely untapped, we believe that UiPath, with the only purpose-built, end-to-end hyperautomation platform, is leading the paradigm shift toward the fully-automated enterprise," Winslow said in a client note. Cowen analyst Bryan Bergin sees many moving parts in the PATH story after EPS.
RBC analyst Joseph Spak has reflected positively on Rivian's (RIVN) production ramp efforts.
The analyst said he is more confident in his Q1 delivery forecasts of 2,100 units and sees scope for upside. RBCs data shows an improving production ramp, Spak said in a client note.
Earlier this month, Rivian suggested they produced 1,410 vehicles in 2022 but said that in recent weeks the average weekly production rate was practically doubled to Q421 numbers.
RBC estimates the weekly production of around 320 vehicles per week. This implies a Q122 production level of ~2.37k.
We note that Visible Alpha consensus 1Q22 deliveries is 1.5k (but based on only 7 inputs). We forecast 1Q22 production is closer to the 2.4k level but assume that ~1 week of production is in transit, Spak added.
The analyst also weighed in on the massive selloff in Rivian shares.
The bar has been reset, we continue to have faith in management, the product, the business plan and the go-to-market strategy. We also believe Rivian is thinking thoughtfully about the entire value chain and how that needs to evolve (down and upstream). The near-term risk is supply chain, but we believe management contemplated the risks in their revised outlook. We view current levels as an attractive entry point for long-term holders. Tactically, as shown above, we may start to get more positive data points. Hitting near-term expectations can lead investors to gain more confidence in outer-year potential. And the valuation looks relatively attractive with an interesting risk/reward, Spak added.