STATE OF THE MARKETS
Stocks edged higher amid rising yields. US stocks edged higher on Monday after President Biden announced that the Covid pandemic was over. Bonds were sold off ahead of the FOMC meeting this Wednesday, sending yields higher across the board. The small cap Russell (+0.81%) climbed the most, followed by the tech-laden Nasdaq (+0.76%), S&P (+0.69%) and the Dow (+0.64%) as the 1Y note hit 4% for the first time since 2008. Dollar was on firm bid at the 110 handle.
In the commodity markets, crude oil dipped to $81.68/bl before bidders emerged to settle the black gold higher around $84.90/bl after the World Bank forecasted a global recession in 2023. Gold was trading in a tight range between $1,680 – $1,660/oz ahead of the FOMC meeting as investors do not see Fed’s tightening to stop anytime soon. Elsewhere, iron ore tumbled below $100/tn on global demand concerns.
In the FX space, short term traders were quick to offer the overbought Yen and Swiss while bidding Sterling, Aussie and Loonie. King Dollar remained in the helm of demand in the medium and long term accounts alongside Swiss, Yen and Euro.
On Tuesday, markets expect more cautious trading and ready to sell on rally ahead of the FOMC meeting. Earnings reports to watch for include Apogee Enterprises (APOG), Stitch Fix (SFIX) and Aurora Cannabis (ACB) as well as the latest numbers on US housing starts and permits.
OUR PICK – CAD/JPY
Medium term weakness. We see medium term weakness in commodity currencies especially against the Yen as markets weigh in reports of global recession from the World Bank. Loonie may suffer from crude oil weakness as well. May use an open target with trailing stop strategy to capture long term gains if weakness permeates into long term horizons.
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Disclaimer: This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.