CEO Morning Brief

US Private Payrolls Gain Slightly Below Expectations in November

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Publish date: Thu, 05 Dec 2024, 09:00 PM
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TheEdge CEO Morning Brief

WASHINGTON (Dec 4): US private payrolls increased at a moderate pace in November, while annual wages for workers staying in their jobs edged up for the first time in 25 months.

The ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday did not change expectations for a sharp acceleration in non-farm payrolls in the government's more comprehensive and closely watched employment report for November, which is scheduled to be published on Friday. Job growth was severely curtailed in October by Hurricanes Helene and Milton as well as strikes by some aerospace factory workers.

Private payrolls rose by 146,000 jobs last month after advancing by a downwardly revised 184,000 in October, the ADP report showed. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing by 150,000 positions after a previously reported 233,000 jump in October.

There is little correlation between the ADP report, which is jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, and the Labor Department's employment report because of methodology differences. Initial ADP prints have mostly understated private payroll growth report by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this year.

A surge in job growth is anticipated in November as the disruptions from Helene and Milton ease. The strikes by factory workers at Boeing and another aerospace company have since ended.

Private payrolls likely rebounded by 200,000 jobs last month after declining by 28,000 in October, a Reuters survey of economists showed. That would account for all the expected 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls.

The economy added only 12,000 jobs in October, the fewest since December 2020.

"The ADP tends to count striking workers and workers who couldn't be paid because of weather as employed, whereas the BLS would not," said Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JPMorgan.

"The implication for November then is also that ADP wouldn’t show a bounce-back from the end of the Boeing strike and hurricane effects. Those effects are driving our forecast for a large 275,000 gain in total payrolls in Friday's BLS report."

Education and health services accounted for most of the increase in payrolls, adding 50,000 positions. Construction employment increased by 30,000 jobs. Trade, transportation and utilities payrolls rose by 28,000 positions. But manufacturing shed 26,000 jobs.

Wages for people remaining in their jobs increased 4.8% year-on-year, the first rise in 25 months, after gaining 4.7% in October. Annual pay for workers changing jobs climbed 7.2% after rising 6.7% in October.

Uploaded by Magessan Varatharaja

Source: TheEdge - 5 Dec 2024

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