State of The Markets

Author: MFMTeam   |   Latest post: Fri, 1 Jul 2022, 9:29 AM


Stocks Plunge Amid Safe-Haven Flows

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Stocks plunge amid safe haven flows. US stocks plunged deeper on Thursday as investors weighed the risk of recession after the Federal Reserve raised the rate to 1.75% in a move to combat inflation. Russell (-4.70%) fell the most, followed by Nasdaq (-4.08%), S&P (-3.25%) and Dow (-2.42%) as investors seek safety in bonds. Yields fell across the board with the 10Y benchmark pulled back down to 3.20% as the Dollar index closed below the 103.90 mark.

In the commodities market, crude rebounded and settled above $114.35/bl after news of US new sanctions against Iran that may curb supply. Gold climbed higher on haven flows and settled above $1,857/oz as New York closed. Elsewhere, iron ore eked minor gains and closed above $137.85/tn as investors hope for reviving demand from China re-opening.

In the FX space, Swiss seized the helm of demand in the short and long term accounts after SNB raised rates unexpectedly to tame inflation. Commodity currencies lost bids in the short and medium term accounts in the sudden shift of sentiments.

On Friday, markets may look to scoop some bargains as the thin calendar only bears the earnings report from Jianpu Tech (JT) and MICT Inc (MICT) as well as the latest US figures on industrial productions and leading indicators. Fed Chair Powell will speak before congress at 8.45am ET.

OUR PICK – No New Picks

No new picks going into the weekend. A week of outflow from all three markets suggesting plenty of cash is sitting at bay for the next deployment. $3.82 billion out of stocks, $14.58 billion out of taxable bond funds and $8.77 billion out of money markets for a total of $27.17 billion. We suspect more flows are going into real assets, commodities and commodities related stocks as well as into future theme investing.

Trades updates: 

Equities: Despite recent rout in the stocks market, we see resiliency in VIPS (28% undervalued with 4.78 z-score) that may suggest China investing is back. This also offer better opportunity for long term investors in T (12% undervalued, 5.85% yields), CRON (26% undervalued with 27.69 z-score), WBA (32% undervalued, 4.81% yields) and M (47% undervalued, 3.18% yields).

FX & Commodities: EUR/USD has reached medium term TP2, AUD/USD has reached medium term TP2 and cut losses short in USD/CAD as sentiment deteriorates post SNB rates hike.

For more high probability picks, please use our Trading Central services. You could also join us at MFM’s TradeCopy

Risk Disclaimer:

This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities/oz. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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