State of The Markets

Author: MFMTeam   |   Latest post: Fri, 20 May 2022, 10:06 AM


Stocks Battered As Inflationary Trades Took Off

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Stocks battered as inflationary trades took off. US stocks continue to plunge on Thursday as markets continue to bid into anti-inflationary assets and defensive sectors. Dow (-0.90%), Nasdaq (-1.30%), S&P (-1.10%) and Russell (-1.88%) were pulled down with real estate, IT and industrials being the weakest sectors. Flights to safety saw yields fall lower with the 10Y back at 180 basis points as Dollar regained the 95.80 barrier.

In the commodities market, heavy profit taking sent crude and gold lower as medium term investors geared up for the month end. Gold settled near $1,839/oz while crude was sharply lower at $84.38/bl after reports of EIA crude and gasoline buildup. Elsewhere, iron ore pulled back to key support at $127.40/tn.

The move into inflationary trades was clear in the FX space, as Aussie and Loonie were on stronghold together with the safe-haven trio Yen, Dollar and Swiss. Safe haven rebalancing might have prompted Swiss to be synchronized across all time horizons.

On Friday, markets look for earnings reports from Schlumberger (SLB), IHS Markit (INFO), Huntington (HBAN), Ally Financial (ALLY) and First Hawaiian (FHB) as well as leading economic index to gauge the state of the US economy.

OUR PICK – No New Picks

No new pick going into the weekend. The inflationary trades we have been talking about finally took off with gold and silver leading the charge as with other commodities. This week more than $58 billion flowed out of short term money markets and about $370 millions out of US equities. Cash is now being put to work to hedge against rising inflation.

Trades updates: 

Equities: Currently we are holding 8 stocks – 7 longs and 1 short. We are long AUY (20% undervalued) with dividends yielding 2.71%, T (11% undervalued) at 7.62% yields and COG (CTRA) (17% undervalued) yielding 2.39%. CLVS is currently 22% overvalued with -8.20 z-score but Tudor Investment had stepped in recently and we decided to hold. We remain bullish with VIPS (45% undervalued with 5.98 z-score), GT (38% undervalued with 1.40 z-score) and CRON (19% undervalued with 9.18 z-score) while bearish GE (16% overvalued with 1.43 z-score).

FX & Commodities: EUR/AUD didn’t get filled while EUR/JPY reached medium term TP2

Risk Disclaimer:

This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities/oz. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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