State of The Markets

Author: MFMTeam   |   Latest post: Tue, 19 Oct 2021, 10:41 AM


Dollar In Limbo Ahead Of NFP

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Dollar in limbo ahead of NFP. Global equities climbed higher on Thursday after news hit the wires that the US senate reached a short-term debt limit extension to avoid government shutdown. Nasdaq (+1.05%), FTSE UK (+1.17%), Nikkei (+1.66%) and Shanghai (+0.27%) all closed in green, while Dollar was little changed ahead of the NFP Friday, even when the 10Y yield has hit 159 basis points at writing.

In the commodities market, crude took a dip to $74.95 before settling higher around $78.30/bl after Russia reassured Europe its willingness to increase supply in the coming winter shortage. Gold took the same fate as Dollar as the yellow metal was little changed flirting around the $1750-60 band. Elsewhere, iron ore for December climbed higher, around $116.65/tn as markets embraced the debt ceiling extension.

In the FX space, Aussie, Loonie and Yen were seen synching in short to medium term accounts as Loonie seized the helm of demand from King Dollar in the long term accounts. Sentiments seemed bullish in the near term as Yen and Swiss were broadly on offers, though long term investors remained cautious as Swiss continued in the bidding list. Markets expect 450k jobs added vs 235k previous with unemployment rate reduced from 5.2% to 5.1% on Friday.

OUR PICK – No New Pick

We stay on the sideline ahead of NFP. When the 10Y yield was at 1.59% in early to mid-June, King Dollar (DXY) was trading around the 90.50 handle. Then as investors ran to bonds and bid for Dollar, yields fell to as low as 1.12% in late July to early August as Dollar continued to rise to the 93 handle. Now yield is back to around 1.59% and Dollar is trading even higher around the 94.30 mark. But that is just bonds as the remaining time on the coupon is getting lesser. Other assets like commodities and commodity currencies would give you more bang for the buck, especially if it’s at a lower price now.

For high probability setups, please use our Trading Central services.


This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.


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