State of The Markets

Author: MFMTeam   |   Latest post: Tue, 19 Oct 2021, 10:41 AM


Dollar Surged On Upbeat Retail Sales

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Dollar surged on upbeat retail sales. As US stocks closed mixed on Thursday, with Dow (-0.18%) and S&P (-0.16%) in the red, while Nasdaq (+0.13%) edged higher; Dollar benefited from retail sales that rose +0.7% vs estimates of a drop by -0.8%. Dollar index (DXY) closed above 92.85, the highest in two weeks as bond prices fell, sending yields higher, with the 10Y benchmark around 1.34% as New York closed.

In the commodities market, crude dipped to the low of $71.50/bl after traders took profit for the week, before bidders emerged to settle the black gold at $72.61 as New York closed. Elsewhere, gold plunged more than $50 to as low as $1745.05/oz on Dollar strength across the board.

In the FX space, while King Dollar dominated the demand for short and medium term accounts with Yen, Sterling and Loonie; long term accounts seemed to prefer Kiwi, Aussie, Euro and Sterling. Swiss was seen synching across horizons at the back burner, sending signals of optimism for the world’s economic recovery. Investors will be watching consumer sentiments on Friday.

OUR PICK – No New Pick

No new pick going into the weekend. At this point in time, investors are weighing better than expected economic data, global covid delta variant spread and what the Federal Reserve will do at next week’s FOMC. So far we see investors are buying the dips in equities but breadth isn’t supporting higher prices due to persistent outflows. Corporate buybacks may save some stocks, but not all companies could afford a buyback in stretched valuation markets. Have a good weekend!

Trades updates: 

Equities: Currently we are holding 8 stocks – 7 longs and 1 short – and have approached maximum equities exposure. We are long AUY with dividends yielding 2.93%, T at 7.54% yields and COG yielding 2.27%. CLVS is currently 22% overvalued with -7.19 z-score but trading central projects a rebound towards 5.62-5.87 where we will most likely close our positions. We remain bullish with VIPS (42% undervalued with 5.59 z-score), GT (47% undervalued with 1.28 z-score) and CRON (16% undervalued with 9.18 z-score) while bearish GE (25% overvalued with 1.36 z-score).

FX & Commodities: We have closed GBP/USDNZD/USD has reached short term TP1, and USD/CAD remains bullish and active.


This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.


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