State of The Markets

Author: MFMTeam   |   Latest post: Fri, 17 Sep 2021, 9:20 AM


Dollar Sliding Lower Ahead of NFP

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Dollar sliding lower ahead of NFP. While all major US indexes, from Dow (+0.37%), Nasdaq (+0.14%) to S&P (+0.28%) marching higher to record territories, the Dollar (DXY) has been sliding all week to nearing 92 handle as of this writing. Bad ADP data, declining PMI but better jobless claims on Thursday, now awaits NFP figure on Friday, seemed to signal that Fed’s options are limited as the best treasuries yields are not even half the inflation rate.

In the commodities market, crude surged to as high as $70.60/bl after EIA reports pointed to more than expected reduction in the US inventories. The black gold settled around $70/bl as New York closed. Gold was little changed, continuing in a tight range of $1,821.50 – $1,807.20/oz  as investors gauged new data ahead of the employment reports Friday.

In the FX space, Kiwi seized the helm of demand across all horizons, alongside Loonie and Aussie, while Dollar retained the second seat in the long term accounts. Short and medium term accounts however, had sent Dollar all the way to the back burner. Short and medium term demand points to lower EUR/GBP rate, a sign of optimism, as the market awaits for NFP Friday.

OUR PICK – No New Pick.

No new pick going into the weekend. Not that often we see a week of outflows from the US equities (-$5.7b) and foreign equities (-$750m) plus another outflow from money markets (-$20.1b); while all taxable bonds only report an inflows of $5.3 billion. This could only mean that the outflows are sitting ducks, which is highly unlikely, and/or funds are flowing into commodities, whatever the commodities maybe. If such is the case, then we should see change in the commodities flow. Top 10 commodities may have a temporal change of ranking as a result, as investors took advantage of any pullback.

Trades updates:  We are accumulating AUY as the stock now pays dividends yielding 2.81% at current price, we remain bullish T and will accumulate as dividends yields now at 7.53%, we remain bullish COG and will accumulate as dividends yields now at 2.54%, we remain bullish CLVSVIPSGT and CRON while bearish GEUSD/CAD has hit medium term first target and XAG/USD is working as planned after NFP sent a signal of dovish Dollar. (Note: GE’s dividend yield is at 0.30% and CLVS, VIPS and GT currently does not pay any dividends)


This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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