Highlights

State of The Markets

Author: MFMTeam   |   Latest post: Wed, 7 Dec 2022, 9:08 AM

 

Stocks Dropped On Recession Fears

Author: MFMTeam   |  Publish date: Wed, 7 Dec 2022, 9:08 AM


STATE OF THE MARKETS

Stocks dropped on recession fearsUS stocks closed in the red on Tuesday as fears crept into the markets that the US economy might be due for a hard landing. The tech-laden Nasdaq (-2.00%) fell the most, followed by Russell (-1.50%), S&P (-1.44%) and Dow (-1.03%) as investors flock to bond’s safety that sent yields lower across the board. The shorter 2Y eased to 4.37% while the 10Y benchmark fell to 3.53% as the Dollar index continued to hold strong above the 105 handle.

In the commodity markets, crude oil continues to press lower amid recession fears and the black gold broke September’s low to settle near $74.55/bl as New York closed. Gold was holding strong above the $1770/oz mark as the Federal Reserve planned to slow down on rate hikes. Elsewhere, iron ore continues to climb higher near $108.50/tn as investors continue to weigh the China re-opening.

In the FX space, sentiments turned bearish as Swiss advanced further into the demand territories while Aussie and Loonie were sold off. Kiwi continue to reign in demand for medium and long term accounts while Sterling eased off on profit taking.

On Wednesday, markets expected to remain volatile as investors continue to position their portfolio ahead of the FOMC meeting next week, where the Feds is expected to raise 50 points of rates to 4.50%. Earnings releases to watch includes Brown Forman (BF), Campbell Soup (CPB), GameStop (GME), Descartes Systems (DSGX), Thor Industries (THO), Hashi Corp (HCP), United Natural Foods (UNFI) and Academy Sports (ASO) as well as the latest figures in the US mortgage applications, Productivity and labor costs. EIA petroleum status will be in the spotlight for energy traders.

 

OUR PICK – AUD/USD

Recession fears may pressure commodities. With markets in fear of a recession that may trouble the US economy, China and  Australia would not be spared. Our sentiment model showed bearish Aussie/Dollar in the short and medium term.

For high probability picks, please use our Trading Central services. You could also join us at MFM’s TradeCopy

Disclaimer: This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

 

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Stocks Tumbled As Investors Await The Feds

Author: MFMTeam   |  Publish date: Tue, 6 Dec 2022, 8:25 AM


STATE OF THE MARKETS

Stocks tumbled as investors await the FedsUS stocks tumbled on Monday as a strong services index (56.5% vs 53.5%) and factory orders (1.0% vs 0.7%)surprised investors who continue to weigh the Federal Reserve rate hikes plan. Markets, however, continue to see a 50 points hike next week as bonds lose bids and Dollar holds steady. The shorter 2Y yields rose to 4.40% while the 10Y benchmark climbed to 3.59% as the Dollar rebounded at the 105 handle.

In the commodity markets, global recession fears pushed crude oil lower to $76.85/bl on top of ongoing concerns over Russian oil cap that would limit supply. Gold erased earlier gains after news of strong economic data sent the Dollar higher as investors see a chance for the Feds to stick to its aggressive hike. The precious metal settled around $1,765.80/oz as New York closed. Elsewhere, Dollar strength failed to keep iron ore under the lid as buyers see potential in China reopening next year. The commodity settled higher, around $107.70/tn after flirting around the $103/tn handle for a while.

In the FX space, short term traders were quick to bid the oversold Dollars alongside Euro, Swiss and Sterling while offering Yen, Kiwi and Aussie. Medium and long term sentiments were little changed.

On Tuesday, markets expect to be defensive ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week. Earnings releases to watch includes AutoZone (AZO), MongoDB(MDB), Casey Stores (CASY), HealthEquity (HQY), Toll Brothers (TOL) and Signet Jewelers (SIG) as well as the latest figures in the US trade balance.

OUR PICK – No New Pick

We stay on the sideline for now. Though services index and factory orders surprised the markets, investors still see higher probability (79.4%) of the Federal Reserve to raise 50 points next week instead of 75 points. Conflicting signals made many investors sit on the sideline right now as we do.

For high probability picks, please use our Trading Central services. You could also join us at MFM’s TradeCopy

 

 

Disclaimer: This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

 

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Stocks Wavered As The Dollar Weakened

Author: MFMTeam   |  Publish date: Fri, 2 Dec 2022, 8:55 AM


STATE OF THE MARKETS

Stocks wavered as the Dollar weakenedUS stocks wavered on Thursday despite news of cooling inflation from the figures in personal consumption and expenditures. Nasdaq (+0.13%) continued to climb higher though Dow (-0.56%), Russell (-0.26%) and S&P (-0.09%) pulled back lower as the Dollar weakened further, below the 104.80 barrier as at writing. Investors continue to demand bond’s safety, sending yields lower, with the shorter 2Y note now breaking 4.25% and the 10Y benchmark dropping to 3.50% in early Asian trading on Friday.

In the commodity markets, crude oil continued its upward trajectory for the fourth day as the Dollar weakened and higher demand expectations from China’s easing on its zero Covid policy. The black gold settled near $81.35 after piercing $83.25/bl in the London session. Gold jumped and broke the $1,800/oz handle after reports of heavy central banks buying in the last few weeks. Similarly, iron ore continues to climb higher past $103/tn as speculators continue to see demand from China Covid re-opening in March 2023 and Dollar weakness.

In the FX space, overall sentiments turned bearish as safe haven Yen seized the helm of demand in the short and medium term while Swiss continued to advance further into the demand territories. Loonie remained sold off while supporting King Dollar as Aussie flipped to offer across all horizons. Demand for Kiwi and Sterling eased off while Euro advanced.

On Friday, markets expect a cautious session with heavy liquidation as investors continue to rebalance as the month ends while waiting for the latest NFP reports. Earnings to watch are thin as only Cracker Barrel (CBRL) and Genesco (GCO) are of interest to long term investors as well as the very much awaited NFP figures and employment situations in the United States.

OUR PICK – No New Picks

No new picks going into the weekend. News of central banks now piling the highest on gold reserves in the last 10 years reverberates in the capital markets especially when the Federal Reserve could back down on its aggressive rate hikes plan as early as this month. Dollar weakened despite the rush to bond’s safety which saw yields tumble in the hope that inflation is easing off. US equities (-$4.7b) continue to report outflows alongside taxable bond funds (-$10.1b) while inflows reported to the short term money markets (+$15.4b). We see strong demand for commodities and commodities related stocks in the coming quarters.

Trades updates: 

Equities:  WBA (16% undervalued, 4.63% yields) and M (42% undervalued, 2.68% yields) pulled back over the week, while SQ (about fairly valued with 4.96 z-score), CRON (31% undervalued with 23.21 z-score), AUY (12% undervalued, 2.20% yields) and VIPS (37% undervalued with 3.92 z-score) jumped higher after Feds turned dovish. T (about fairly valued, 5.76% yields) was little changed.

FX & Commodities:  No new trades this week.

For more high probability picks, please use our Trading Central services. You could also join us at MFM’s TradeCopy

 
 
 

Disclaimer:

This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

 

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Stocks Jumped As Feds Turned Dovish

Author: MFMTeam   |  Publish date: Thu, 1 Dec 2022, 8:46 AM


STATE OF THE MARKETS

Stocks jumped as Feds turned dovishUS stocks rallied higher on Wednesday after Fed’s Chair Powell commented that the central bank may have to moderate its rate hikes as soon as December. The tech-laden Nasdaq (+4.41%) jumped the most, followed by S&P (+3.09%), Russell (+2.72%) and Dow (+2.18%) as risk averse investors continue to flock to bond’s safety, sending yields lower across the board. The shorter 2Y yields dropped to 4.33% while the 10Y benchmark hit 3.61% as the Dollar index continued to drift lower to 105.50 as at writing.

In the commodity markets, Dollar weakness sent major commodities higher with crude oil climbed higher for the third day and settled near $80.50/bl as New York closed. Similarly, gold continues to rise past the $1,780/oz barrier while iron ore breaks the $93.20/tn barrier as investors continue to re-price the Dollar.

In the FX space, overall sentiments seemed mixed as Kiwi and Yen continue to dominate demand territories across all horizons alongside Sterling, amid portfolio rebalancing on month end. King Dollar and Loonie remain on offers as Feds slow down on rate hikes and crude under pressure. Sterling and Aussie were seen synching across all horizons, a sign that turnaround is near.

On Thursday, markets may turned choppy as long term investors look to cash out on further rally in equities while short term traders may look to scoop some bargains as more earnings reports roll in. Earnings releases to watch includes TD Bank (TD), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Dollar General (DG), CIBC (CM), Marvell Tech (MRVL), Kroger (KR), ChargePoint (CHPT) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) as well as the latest figures in the US manufacturing and construction spending, personal consumption expenditures and jobless claims.

OUR PICK – No New Pick

We stay on the sideline for now. With two trades stopped out recently – Crude Oil and NZD/USD – and choppy markets ahead of the NFP Friday, we decided to stay on the sideline for now.

For high probability picks, please use our Trading Central services. You could also join us at MFM’s TradeCopy

 
 
 
 
 

Disclaimer:

This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

 

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marry04 The bitcoin market on Binance also spiked on the dovish Feds move https://runaway3d.com
05/12/2022 3:01 AM

Stocks In Limbo Amid Recession Fears

Author: MFMTeam   |  Publish date: Wed, 30 Nov 2022, 9:03 AM


STATE OF THE MARKETS

Stocks in limbo amid recession fearsUS stocks closed mixed on Tuesday as investors were cautious ahead of a heavy slate of economic data and speech by the Federal Reserve’s Chair on Wednesday. The blue chip Dow (+0.01%) edged higher with the small cap Russell (+0.31%), while the tech laden Nasdaq (-0.59%) and S&P (-0.16%) closed lower as the yields between the shorter 2Y (4.48%) and 10Y (3.75%) benchmark inverted to new extremes since the 80’s. Fears continue to dominate demand in Dollar as the index continues to surge at the 106 handle and settle above the 106.80 barrier.

In the commodity markets, crude oil continues to rebound past $78.80/bl as investors hope for renewed demand from China as the country reconsiders easing on the zero Covid policy. Fears sent gold higher to erase earlier losses and back above $1761.50/oz as at writing. Elsewhere, iron ore continues to stall around the $93/tn handle as markets wait for the next catalysts.

In the FX space, easing of protest in China sent bullish sentiments across markets as demand for Aussie and Kiwi continued to reign while Yen pulled back in the short term. Weakness in crude oil continues to weigh on Loonie as the commodity currency continues to be on offer. Sterling was seen synchronizing across all horizons, a signal that the currency may soon turn around as King Dollar flipped to demand.

On Wednesday, markets expected to remain volatile as investors continue to rebalance their portfolio as the month comes to an end. Earnings releases to watch includes Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Salesforce (CRM), Synopsys (SNPS), Snowflake (SNOW), Hormel Foods (HRL), Splunk (SPLK), Five Below (FIVE) and Pure Storage (PSTG) as well as the latest figures in the US mortgage applications, GDP, jobs opening, and ADP employment reports. EIA petroleum status will be in the spotlight for energy traders.

OUR PICK – No New Pick

We stay on the sideline for now. With two trades stopped out recently – Crude Oil and NZD/USD – and choppy markets ahead of the NFP Friday, we decided to stay on the sideline for now.

For high probability picks, please use our Trading Central services. You could also join us at MFM’s TradeCopy

 

Disclaimer: This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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Stocks Tumbled Amid Flight To Safety

Author: MFMTeam   |  Publish date: Tue, 29 Nov 2022, 9:06 AM


STATE OF THE MARKETS

Stocks tumbled amid flight to safetyUS stocks tumbled on Monday as investors were spooked by the protests in China that could spark global recession fears as the economy reverts amid new lockdowns. The small cap Russell (-2.05%) fell the most, followed by Nasdaq (-1.58%), S&P (-1.54%) and Dow (-1.45%) as investors flock to bond’s safety, sending yields lower across the board. The shorter 2Y fell under 4.43% while the 10Y benchmark fell to 3.62% as safe haven demand pushed the Dollar back above the 106.65 mark.

In the commodity markets, global recession fears pushed crude oil lower to $73.60/bl before bidders stepped in and settled the black gold higher near $76.50/bl as New York closed. Dollar strength continued to weigh on gold that was under pressure and closed below $1,741.30/oz. Elsewhere, iron ore continues to stall around the $93/tn handle as markets wait for the next catalysts.

In the FX space, overall sentiments were mixed as demand for safe haven Yen remained elevated across the board alongside Aussie and Kiwi. Short term traders were quick to sell the overbought Sterling, while continuing to demand Euro. King Dollar remained in the offers alongside Swiss and Loonie.

On Tuesday, markets expect to be defensive ahead of the GDP and employment data later this week. Earnings releases to watch includes Intuit (INTU), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), Workday (WDAY), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Hewlett Packard (HPE) and NetApp (NTAP) as well as consumer confidence and Case-Schiller home price index.

 

OUR PICK – No New Pick

We stay on the sideline for now. With two trades stopped out recently – Crude Oil and NZD/USD – and choppy markets ahead of the NFP Friday, we decided to stay on the sideline for now.

For high probability picks, please use our Trading Central services. You could also join us at MFM’s TradeCopy

 

 

Disclaimer: This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

 

 

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