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NordFX Weekly Forecast

Author: StanNordFX   |   Latest post: Mon, 26 Oct 2020, 4:22 AM

 

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 26 - 30, 2020

Author: StanNordFX   |  Publish date: Mon, 26 Oct 2020, 4:22 AM


First, a review of last week’s events:

  • EUR / USD. 40% of analysts predicted the growth of this pair to the 1.1900 zone and were right: the local weekly high was recorded at 1.1880, and the five-day period ended at 1.1860.
    Strong macro statistics from the United States, as well as a record increase in the number of COVID-19 infected in the Old World, seemed to reverse the pair's trend south on October 21. But then Europe, together with Germany, showed an increase in business activity. This reduced the chances of a build-up of the European quantitative easing (QE) program and further growth in bond prices, which allowed the pair to return to its weekly highs;
  • GBP/USD. The hope of a third of analysts that the uptrend was over and the pair shifted to a sideways movement did not come true: it moved north again, turning the upper border of the sideways channel 1.2845-1.3035 from resistance to support.
    The UK and the EU continued negotiations, breaking the deadlock in which they stood since the end of last week. But then... they hit it again. As a result, the pair rushed upwards, but having reached a height of 1.3175, it turned in the opposite direction. Contributing to the decline was the Markit PMI in the UK services sector, which fell from 56.1 to 52.3.
    The last chord of the week sounded at 1.3045. This means that the pound still gained 130 points in 5 days, and investors still hope that the UK and the EU can come to an agreement on Brexit. Although the main reason, of course, is not the strengthening of the pound, but the weakening of the dollar; 
  • USD/JPY. Recall that 30% of analysts, along with graphical analysis, expected the pair to rebound from the horizon at 105.00 and rise to the resistance of 106.00. And they turned out to be right: the pair reached a height of 105.75 by Tuesday October 20.
    The remaining 70% of experts, supported by 75% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on D1, claimed that the USD/JPY pair will be able to approach the September 21 low of 104.00 at least for a while. And they were not mistaken either: - on Wednesday, October 21, the pair recorded a local low at 104.33, followed by a rebound and a finish at 104.70.
    According to experts, such a sharp reversal and a fall from a height of 105.75 to 104.33 were a reaction to the general weakening of the dollar and, first of all, its depreciation against the Chinese yuan. The massive triggering of Stop-Loss orders when the support broke out in the 105.00 zone added fuel to the fire;
  • cryptocurrencies. Finally! Bitcoin broke the $12,000 level and even hit the $13,200 high. And, as the CEO of analyst firm CryptoQuant, Ki Yong Joo, predicted, this growth has not led to a massive sell-off of the coin. This gives reason to hope that the main cryptocurrency will be able to gain a foothold in this zone.
    Bitcoin has grown by almost 80% since the beginning of 2020. According to the analytical service Glassnode, the number of addresses that store more than 100 BTC has grown to 16,159, reaching the maximum value in six months. The total number of addresses with a non-zero balance is approaching 32 million.
    According to another analytical agency, The Block, in addition to the growth in the number of wallets, the number of transactions and the volume of commissions in the BTC blockchain are also growing. Over the past quarter, transactions worth $225 billion were made on this network. That is, on average, users were conducting transactions for $2.4 billion per day. Four months ago, the average transaction was about $25,000, but it jumped 6 times by October 20, reaching $150,000.
    Over the past week, bitcoin's gains have been driven by a very positive news background. Large institutional investors such as Square, MicroStrategy, Stoneridge and Mode Global Holdings have turned to Bitcoin. And the news that the payment giant PayPal is adding to its line of services the ability to buy and sell cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash, came as a "cherry on the cake".
    As a result, the benchmark coin rose 13.5% in seven days, pulling the entire crypto market with it, the total capitalization of which increased from $357 to $390 billion.The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from the neutral yellow zone to the border of the last quarter of the scale reaching the value of 74. Recall that the range from 75 to 100 is designated by the developers of the index as “Extreme Greed”, which corresponds to the pair BTC/USD being strongly overbought and foreshadows its correction.

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

  • EUR/USD. If you follow the textbooks on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic statistics is of basic, fundamental importance. However, there was no coronavirus pandemic when these books were written. And now it's here. And it is capable of destroying any predictions.
    On the one hand, the incidence schedule in Europe is bursting upward, Germany and France set a new "anti-record" for the number of infected people on Thursday, October 22. Spain has become the first European country to see the number of people falling ill above 1m, putting pressure on the euro. But COVID-19 has hit supply as well as demand.
    The situation is similar in the US. The number of coronavirus patients is approaching record levels. But at the same time, the country's authorities do not want to introduce new quarantine restrictions in order to support economic activity. Much, including the mood of the markets, depends on the outcome of the US presidential election on November 3.
    According to Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan, Democrat Joe Biden's victory will reduce the likelihood of a new wave of protectionist US policies and allow the pair to reach the 1.2000 mark. If Donald Trump wins again, the dollar, in anticipation of a new round of trade war, is likely to go into growth, and the EUR/USD pair will fall to the lows of September in the 1.1600 zone.
    In the meantime, despite the fact that Biden's ratings are higher, investors are in no hurry to get rid of the dollar, because they remember how, unexpectedly for many, Donald Trump became the resident of the White House in 2016. And this can happen again.
    The intrigue with the election results will continue after November 3, because they may be challenged, especially those of voting by mail, and the electoral college will meet only on December 14.
    Now about the forecast for the coming week. The listed uncertainties prevent analysts from unambiguously pointing in one direction or another. However, 75% of them do not exclude a slight rise in the EUR/USD pair at least to the level of 1.1900. Also, 100% of indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored green.
    The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Its fall is also supported by 25% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on both timeframes. Support levels are 1.1800, 1.1760 and 1.1700. The ultimate goal, as already stated, is 1.1600.
    As for the events of the coming week, special attention should be paid to the meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday, October 29, and especially to the final press conference of its lmanagement, which will be held in the afternoon of the same day. The data on US GDP, which will be released on October 29, and the Eurozone GDP, which will be released a day later, on Friday, October 30, can also influence the formation of local trends;
  • GBP/USD. The overwhelming majority (90%) of experts, supported by graphical analysis and trend indicators on D1, believe that the pair changed the echelon 1.2845-1.3035 to a higher one - 1.3000-1.3175. However, this forecast is very short-term, and its further behavior will be determined by the result of the presidential election in the United States, the epidemiological situation on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean and the course of negotiations between the EU and the UK on the terms of Brexit. If the parties show that there will be no withdrawal from the Agreement, this will have a beneficial effect on the pound rate. The situation on this issue should be clarified by mid-November. In the meantime, COVID-19 will continue to play the main role, having the most serious impact on the British economy and especially on finances.
    It should be noted that when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the picture changes radically, and here already the majority of experts (60%) and  graphical analysis on D1 expect the pair to fall rather than rise: first to the level of 1.2860, and then by another 100 points below;

  • USD/JPY. We are waiting for the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and its management's comment on monetary policy next week, on October 29. But, as usual, we do not expect any surprises from them, and the rate is highly likely to remain at the same negative level, minus 0.1%.
    More interesting is the tug of war between the dollar and the yen as safe haven currencies. And here, given the pre-election and pandemic chaos in the US, 75% of experts prefer the Japanese currency as more stable. This scenario is supported by 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1.
    Note that, starting in 2016, the USD/JPY pair has fallen below 105.00 for the seventh time. However, it usually lingers there only for a very short time, after which it returns above this mark. The question is still open as to what will happen this time. However, in the medium term, 60% of experts do not exclude that the pair may break through the support of 104.00 and even go down to the zone 102.00-103.00.
    As for the graphical analysis, on D1 it draws a sideways movement in the 104.00-105.55 channel within the next three weeks;
  • cryptocurrencies. On Friday evening, October 23, the BTC/USD pair is in the $12.860 zone - a new local support/resistance level. If bitcoin holds above $12,800, it promises to be the highest weekly rise in 2.5 years and offers hope for growth to historic highs around $20,000. The immediate challenge is testing the July 2019 high of $13,760.
    Bitcoin's rise right now is driven by the pandemic, the monetary printing press that trillions of fiats are coming out of, and the growing popularity of cryptocurrency with large institutional investors. Thus, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital investment firm Anthony Pompliano increased accumulations in the main cryptocurrency from 50% to 80%.
    The number of contracts to buy BTC accumulated in the hands of institutional investors has reached an all-time high, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). However, according to the Commitment of traders (COT) reports, hedge funds hold no fewer contracts to sell bitcoin. A number of experts believe that hedge funds do this in order to provide sufficient liquidity for institutional investors.
    Popular TV host and long-time bitcoin supporter Max Kaiser agrees with this version. He believes that at current levels, bitcoin futures traders are slowing the price of BTC to give institutional players a chance to "load the boat." However, once the asset reaches the $28,000 mark (the intermediate benchmark set by Kaiser), the number of coins for sale will go zero, and thanks to the deficit, their price will burst up to the cosmic heights.
    “For the poor of this world, the current price and availability of BTC,” says Kaiser, “is the only opportunity in life to purchase non-forfeitable hard money before the price of it rises to 40-80 times, and prices will soar to the level of golden parity by around $400,000.”
    Turning to the forecast for the coming months, we will cite the opinion of Anton Kravchenko, CEO of the investment company Xena Financial Systems, according to which the rate of the BTC/USD pair may reach $14,000 by the end of the year. 65% of experts agree with this forecast. The fact that the pair could fall to $9,000 was mentioned by 25% of analysts a week ago, now their number has fallen to 15%. The remaining 10% have taken a neutral position.

 

NordFX Analytical Group

 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 19 - 23, 2020

Author: StanNordFX   |  Publish date: Mon, 19 Oct 2020, 2:38 AM


First, a review of last week’s events:

  • EUR/USD. The market is now ruled by two main factors: the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and the upcoming November 3 presidential election in the United States.
    A rise of nearly 900,000 in applications for unemployment benefits showed that the labor market and the U.S. economy need more stimulus measures. And although, according to US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, an agreement on such measures between Democrats and Republicans before the election is unlikely, negative statistics have tempered greatly the market risk appetite and pushed down stock indices such as the S&P500. This clearly benefited the US currency: by Thursday, the dollar gained 135 points, and the EUR/USD pair reached a local bottom at 1.1685. This was followed by a rebound downward, and the pair completed the five-day period at 1.1715;
    It is possible that the “American” would continue to strengthen its position, but the “European” is actively helped by the confident development of the economy of China and the ECB, which is clearly not going to increase the volumes of its quantitative easing (QE) program.
    The number of COVID-19 cases in Europe is growing, which could provoke the introduction of new strict quarantine measures that restrict economic activity. However, after the adoption of a program to support the European economy in the amount of €1.8 trillion at the end of July, the European Central Bank does not want to boost developments and expand its monetary stimulus program. At the moment, less than half of the funds have been spent within the framework of the already operating QE program, therefore, it simply does not make sense to talk about new incentives, according to the Vice President of the ECB Luis de Guindos;
  • GBP/USD. The uptrend of the first 12 days of October is over, and the pair has moved to the sideways movement in the range 1.2860-1.3080. Moreover, the end of the week was left to the bears, who managed to put the final point at the level of 1.2915. An obstacle to the growth of the pound was the introduction of additional restrictions due to the coronavirus in London, as well as the statement of the EU leadership that the bloc, although it seeks a fair partnership with the UK, will not compromise at any cost;
  • USD/JPY. This pair ended the weekly session at 105.40, in a zone of a very strong mid-term support, which has stopped its decline many times over the past 12 weeks. And now the question of what a safer haven for investors is, the dollar or the yen, remains open. The competition continues;
  • cryptocurrencies. We often start our review of cryptocurrencies with criminal news. Nothing particularly outstanding in this area happened last week. Although police reports had information about attempts to blackmail and extortion of cryptocurrency now and then.
    So, there was a wave of calls about mining buildings in at least 18 prefectures in Japan. Scammers demanded a ransom in cryptocurrencies. “Bitcoin was the most popular choice for criminals,” said Japan Today. "But in none of the cases has the information about the explosives been confirmed." As a result, the criminals did not receive money, but they have not yet been caught, unlike a sheep farmer from Lincolnshire (England), who has already been sentenced to 14 years in prison for extorting £1.4 million worth of bitcoins from Tesco supermarket chain.
    According to the Daily Mail, 45-year-old Nigel Wright put cans of Heinz and Cow & Gate baby food brands on the shelves of the chain stores, which he stuffed with metal fragments, including shards of a stationery knife, for two years, After which he demanded ransom in exchange for a promise to reveal the location of the dangerous cans. The sheep breeder was detained after a detective posing as a Tesco employee transferred £100,000 in cryptocurrency to him.
    As a result of Wright's threats, Tesco had to recall from stores a total of 140 thousand cans of baby food, 42 thousand of them were destroyed. It cost the trading network £2.7 million in losses.
    If Tesco has suffered losses, bitcoin holders continue to profit: the price of the main cryptocurrency has increased by about 3% over the past 7 days. As we predicted, the BTC/USD pair, despite several attempts, failed to overcome the resistance of $11,500 and marked a new consolidation zone in the area of $11,300-11,400.
    The total capitalization of the crypto market during this time has also grown slightly and is at $357 billion. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it is still in the neutral yellow zone at the heart of the scale ­— at 52 (it was 48 a week ago).
    Bitcoin has risen by 8.5% in the last 6 weeks. But the results of such top altcoins as litecoin (LTC/USD), ripple (XRP/USD) and ethereum (ETH/USD) are almost zero. Ethereum mining revenues have grown by about 40 percent over the past month. According to the analytical platform Glassnode, the main source of new earnings was the increased commissions. The popularization of the DeFi market was also reflected in the income of miners, which significantly increased the number of operations performed on the Ethereum blockchain.
    Its protocol and the ability to create smart contracts allowed to create decentralized financial instruments within the framework of DeFi and DAO projects that allow you to borrow or lend cryptocurrency, and also earn on its simple retention (staking). As a result, the number of daily active wallets in the Ethereum network quadrupled - from 12.8 thousand in the second quarter to 50.2 thousand in the third quarter of 2020. The Ethereum blockchain accounted for 96% of all transactions related to decentralized applications (dapps), for a total of almost $120 billion.
    Such activity of competitors could not but excite the holders of the main cryptocurrency - bitcoin. And as a result of the joint work of the Kyber network, the Ren ecosystem and BitGo, a similar project was implemented - DAO WBTC. The results of the 4th quarter will show how effective and popular it will be.

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

  • EUR/USD. When looking at the chart of this pair, it becomes clear to the experienced trader that oscillators either on H4 or on D1 are unable to give any accurate predictions now. Among trend indicators, a certain advantage is on the red side - 70% on both timeframes. However, even despite the support of graphical analysis on D1, technical analysis cannot guarantee the continuation of the downtrend. The key word, as usual, is with fundamental analysis. Or rather, with those factors that were mentioned at the very beginning of the review.
    Of course, it may be that we will hear something new next week. It seems that the main goal of the heads of regulators is to achieve their goals solely with words. Speeches by the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde are scheduled for October 18, 19 and 21, while the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will be heard on Monday, October 19. But that's not all — a debate is due to be held by US presidential candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden on Friday October 23. Only 10 days are left until the “X” hour, so the duel of politicians promises to be unusually hot.
    Both Lagarde and Powell's speeches and the White House contenders’ debate could have a heavy impact on investor sentiment. And if the fall in stock indices continues, it will cause further strengthening of the dollar and further movement of the EUR/USD pair to the south. 60% of analysts agree with such a development, pointing out September lows around 1.1610 as a target. The remaining 40% believe that, having bounced off the level of 1.1715, the pair will go up. The nearest resistance levels are 1.1755 and 1.1825. The following barrier is located in zone 1.1900;
  • GBP/USD. Not only the heads of the ECB and the Fed, but also the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey will talk a lot in the near future. His speeches are scheduled for October 18 and 22. However, he will not be the main newsmaker. The pound still has potential for further growth, but this requires a real breakthrough in the negotiations between the UK and the European Union on Brexit terms. And they, apparently, will drag on for another two weeks, or even longer. The fact that the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson is not going to move away from the negotiation process is a good signal and gives us hope that an agreement with the EU can still be reached. But not in the coming days. Therefore, 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, as well as 80% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on H4, believe that the GBP/USD pair may well fall to the 1.2700 zone in the coming week. Supports are 1.2845 and 1.2770.
    The remaining 30% of analysts hope that the pair will remain within the boundaries of the channel 1.2845-1.3035 and will soon return to its upper border. The next resistance level is 1.3080;
  • USD/JPY. Currently, the Japanese currency is supported by falling risk sentiments and rising yields on safe bonds. However, the yen is close to the key support at 105.00, breaking through which is a very difficult task. Just look at the chart for the last 12 weeks. And the battles for this level in 2018-19 left many memorable, non-healing scars on the bodies of bears.
    The majority of experts (70%), supported by 75% percent of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on D1, believe that the pair will still be able to overcome this barrier within two to three weeks and approach the September 21 low 104.00 at least for a time. Supports are 105.00 and 104.45.
    As for the remaining 30% of analysts and graphical analysis, they forecast that the dollar will grow, and the USD/JPY pair is expected to break from the horizon of 105.00 and rise first to resistance of 106.00, then to 106.40, and finally to a height of 107.20;

  • cryptocurrencies. We noted in the first part of the review that the development of the DeFi market has significantly increased the popularity of ethereum. However, the situation could change dramatically if Joe Biden wins the presidential election. This will cause a new wave of inspections and tightening of control over the financial market, due to which some of the DeFi projects will be closed.
    But Bitcoin, according to Bloomberg experts, will only win if Joe Biden wins. Under Donald Trump, the emphasis was on strengthening the dollar and all industries associated with it. Analysts are confident that the new American administration will think more progressively in matters of finance, in view of which the adoption of bitcoin by regulators will accelerate significantly.
    The main task of this coin at the moment is to break through the important resistance of $12,000 and gain a foothold above it. It is at this level both in August 2020 and in 2019 that there was an activation of bears and a downward trend reversal. And if the bulls manage to overcome the resistance of sellers, BTC/USD pair have chances to reach the highs of last summer around $13,000-13,750.
    According to the calculations of Timothy Peterson, manager of the investment company Cane Island Alternative Advisors, who uses Metclough's law for forecasts, the price of bitcoin with a 90% probability will not fall below $11,000. Moreover, with the same probability it should exceed the $12,000 mark by November 30, 2020.
    Metclough's law in application to the crypto market states that the value of bitcoin depends entirely on the number of people using it. And according to Peterson, this approach helped him to successfully forecast the price of BTC at the end of 2018 and in 2019.
    Another expert, CEO of analyst firm CryptoQuant, Ki Yong Joo, also believes that the coin will continue to grow, citing the absence of an influx of bitcoins on exchanges as an argument. To assess the volume of BTC transfers to exchanges, CryptoQuant has created its own indicator All Exchanges Inflow Mean, and now it remains in the “safe” zone: the “whales” are in no hurry to get rid of their reserves. And according to Ki Yong Joo's forecasts, bitcoin's rise above $11,500 will not lead to a massive sell-off.
    Today, according to chain.info, the five largest cryptocurrency exchanges alone hold almost 2 million BTC coins, which is almost 11% of the total emission. These exchanges can be subjected not only to hacking attacks, but also to attacks by regulators and law enforcement agencies, which will result in the loss or blocking of significant volumes of the main cryptocurrencies. And this, as some experts believe, will cause a shortage of bitcoins in the market and an increase in its price. Although, almost no one believes now that the BTC/USD pair will be able to reach an all-time high of $20,000 by the end of the year. Even the probability of it pinning above the $13,000 horizon is only 25%. The probability of falling to $9,000 is exactly the same.

 

NordFX Analytical Group

 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. 

https://nordfx.com

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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 12 - 16, 2020

Author: StanNordFX   |  Publish date: Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 5:22 AM


 

First, a review of last week’s events:

 

- EUR/USD. We have repeatedly written about the ECB's fear of strengthening the euro as it poses a threat to the recovery of the Eurozone economy. However, neither the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde nor her colleagues want to start a currency war with the US Federal Reserve. Therefore, try to turn the market around not by actions, but by words.

The minutes of the September meeting of the ECB were to convince investors that, saving the economy from the second wave of COVID-19, the regulator could in the near future expand the quantitative easing (QE) program, and even reduce interest rates. And, judging by the quotes, at first the market believed in all this: EUR/USD pair went down, and the dollar went into growth. But all this did not last long: having lost about 80 points and reaching the 1.1725 zone, the pair turned around and went north again, ending the five-day period at 1.1825. As a result, it returned to the central zone of the side channel 1710-1.1920, the boundaries of which were outlined at the very beginning of August.

Most likely, such a change in trend is associated with forecasts regarding the results of the US presidential elections on November 3. Expectations of Joe Biden's victory pulled up the stock market and triggered another fall in the American currency. So, the S&P500 rose by 265 points in a week and a half, and the dollar shrunk by 210 points in two weeks. Although, it's likely that everything is built on emotions. And it is unlikely that anyone can explain why Biden will be better and more useful for the U.S. economy than Trump;

 

- GBP/USD. In general, the dynamics of this pair repeats the movements of EUR / USD, which suggests that everything depends not on the behavior of the common European or British currencies, but on the US dollar at the moment.

Macro statistics characterizing the state of the British economy turned all red. Data from the construction sector, industrial production, GDP - everything went into negative territory. There has been no particular progress in the Brexit negotiations. But the market did not react to these data in any way. And, if we look at the results of the week, the pound, albeit a little, bypassed the dollar, having strengthened by over 100 points. This is due to the growth of the US stock market, which caused a general weakening of the American currency (the DXY index fell from 94.64 on September 25 to 93.06 on October 09). The GBP/USD pair placed the finishing chord at the1.3045, in the Pivot Point zone of the last ten weeks;

 

- USD/JPY. Only 15% of analysts voted for the growth of this pair in the previous forecast. However, at the beginning of the week it listened to them and went north to the zone 106.00. Apparently, investors did not want to seek refuge in the quiet Japanese harbor and preferred risky sentiments. However, the situation calmed down a bit, the pair switched to a sideways trend, and it returned to the area where it had repeatedly stayed from September 25 to October 07 at the end of the week - to the zone 105.60. So the result of the last two weeks can be safely called zero;

 

- cryptocurrencies. Maybe bitcoin has already become a full-fledged protective asset? Many experts and investors ask this question. Indeed, it cannot jump over the $11,000 mark for the fifth week in a row, but it does not go down either, forming an "ascending triangle" pattern.

Its quotes were not affected either by the infection of the family of President Trump with the coronavirus, or hacker attacks, or attacks by regulators. How did Bitcoin react to the fact that the American CFTC regulator, together with the federal prosecutor's office, accused one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges BitMEX of financial fraud? It didn't! Or here's the news of the theft of $200-350 million worth of crypto assets from the KuCoin Hong Kong exchange. Previously, it would have caused the effect of an exploding bomb. And now there is silence.

There is no need to talk about the arrest of the creator of the well-known antivirus McAfee, who became famous in the crypto world for his scandalous predictions and bets. Well, John McAfee (by the way, a former US presidential candidate from the Libertarian Party) avoided paying taxes with the help of cryptocurrencies. So what? The news is curious of course. But this is not a reason to drop the bitcoin rate.

The volatility of the main cryptocurrency has reached its lowest level in the last two years. A report from the CoinMeitrcs analytical service team says that against this backdrop, investors prefer to keep coins rather than sell them. The build-up intensified after the March collapse. Investors have been transferring bitcoins from exchanges to so-called cold wallets in recent months, reflecting their desire to switch to long-term storage of cryptocurrency. The number of addresses holding BTC for more than one year reached its highest level in a decade last month - 63.5% of bitcoins have not moved anywhere since the autumn of 2019.

Last week, BTC/USD pair, not falling below $10,500, made another attempt to break the resistance of $11,000, which is generally consistent with the scenario proposed by our experts. At the time of writing this forecast, the main cryptocurrency is quoted at $11,100. However, it is unclear whether it will be able to gain a foothold in this zone, since Saturday and Sunday are ahead, when strong price movements can occur in the thin market.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization grew from $330 billion to $349 billion in seven days. Moreover, this chart is very similar to the BTC/USD chart, which once again reminds of which coin dominates this market. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it is at 48, almost in the very center of the scale. Note that, since the first days of September, this index has never gone beyond the central zone, staying in the range from 40 to 50, which is fully consistent with the current low volatility of the BTC/USD pair and confirms the close correlation of these two indicators.

 

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

 

- EUR/USD. So, the next election of the President of the United States is getting closer, hour X is scheduled for November 03. But what can it change radically? In theory, we are talking about the normalization of monetary policy, which should strengthen the US currency. But in practice, the Fed's capabilities are already severely limited.

The Wall Street Journal estimates that most analysts (57%) believe that no matter who ends up in the White House, the labor market will not be able to return to full employment until 2023 at the earliest. And this increases the likelihood of a weakening dollar and further growth of the pair EUR/USD. And here it is again just right to start talking about the currency conflict between the Fed and the ECB.

As already mentioned, the European Central Bank does not like a weak dollar and a strong euro at all, and it would be glad if the pair turned south. Among the arguments that can convince investors to do this, experts most often refer to the serious deterioration of the epidemiological situation with COVID-19 in Europe, as well as negative forecasts on the state of the Old World economy, which could lead to an expansion of stimulus measures by the ECB, including an interest rate cut and a build-up to the QE program.

And another strongest factor is the growth of the US stock market. As long as it grows. But if suddenly, on the eve of or following the results of the presidential election, investors begin to massively fix profits, this will lead to a sharp rise in the dollar and a fall in the euro and other currencies.

Among the most important and interesting events of the coming week, one can note the speeches of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on October 12 and 13, the publication of macro statistics on the US consumer market on October 13 and 16, as well as the debate of the candidates for the President of the United States, which will be held at the end of the working week, on Friday October 16   

- EUR/USD. 100% of the trend indicators on H4 and D1 are colored green. Among the oscillators, the majority (75%) also point north, but 25% are already giving signals that the pair is overbought. Graphical analysis indicates that the pair will move in the 1710-1.1920 channel for the next few days, after which it will drop to the lows of September 25-28 in the 1.1600 zone. As for the experts, most of them (60%) believe that the pair, before going down, will first rise to the upper boundary of the specified channel. The remaining 40% expect it to fall sharply to 1.1600;

 

- GBP/USD. Here, as in the case of other currencies, the forecast is based on the growth and fall of investors' risk appetites. GBR100 was able to grow following the American indices. And if the US stock markets continue to rise and the dollar to fall, then the GBP/USD pair will continue to grow. If mass profit-taking starts on stock markets in the run-up to the presidential election in America, then we can expect a downward turn. A lull, accordingly, will cause a lull.

As for technical and graphic analyses, their readings also coincide with those of their “colleagues” in the EUR/USD pair. The cancellation of the correlation of these two pairs can occur only for two reasons: 1) if something extraordinary happens in the negotiations between the EU and the UK on Brexit, or 2) if the ECB nevertheless decides to take decisive new steps to support the Eurozone economy, and the Bank of England, as they say , "remain as is", that is, does not take any additional incentive measures. The next speech by the head of this regulator, Andrew Bailey, is scheduled for Monday, October 12, and it is not excluded that he will outline the priorities of the Bank of England for the next period.

As was said, the pair finished last week in the medium-term Pivot Point zone at the 1.3045 horizon. The nearest support is 1.3000, the next ones are 1.2840, 1.2760 and 1.2675. Resistance levels are 1.3120, 1.3185 and 1.3265;

 

- USD/JPY. Considering the result of the past two weeks, there is no clarity with the near future for this pair, and the opinion of experts (50% to 50%) does not allow any conclusions to be drawn. Although, if you look at the readings of graphical analysis and oscillators on D1, the advantage is still with the bulls, and there is an opportunity for the pair to rise first to the resistance of 106.00, then to 106.40, and finally to the height of 107.20.

If we go from the weekly scenario to the monthly one, then there is a clear advantage among analysts, on the contrary, on the side of the bears. 70% of them expect the yen to strengthen and the pair to decline to the September 21 low at 104.00. Supports are 105.00 and 104.45;

 

- cryptocurrencies. Stock indexes rose and the BTC/USD pair grew last week, which gave the reason to once again talk about the correlation of bitcoin with S&P500 and Dow Jones. However, some reputable experts believe that this dependence is temporary. 

So, the CEO of the venture capital company Social Capital Chamat Palihapitiya said in an interview with CNBC that he still sees bitcoin as a hedge against the modern financial system. “At a fundamental level, BTC does not correlate with traditional markets because it is based on a set of beliefs that are exactly the opposite of the attitudes that govern the modern world. This is the insurance I use to sleep well at night in case the central banks and world authorities come across a bomb,” Palihapitiya said.

According to experts from one of the shareholders of Tesla, the ARK Invest fund, the capitalization of bitcoin may exceed $5 trillion. This will take the coin up to 10 years, but massive investments can start earlier. This figure could reach $1 trillion in the next 5 years, after which growth will occur at a faster rate. This will also affect the value of the asset. So, according to Bobby Lee, a member of the board of directors of the Bitcoin Foundation, the price of the main coin can reach $500 thousand by 2028.

The forecast of Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone is also interesting. In his opinion, the rate of bitcoin can exceed $100k within 5 years. The logic here is simple: in 2011 BTC was worth about $10, in 2013 - $1,000, and it took four years to reach the $10,000 mark in 2017. That is, the growth rates are slowing down, and it will take not four, but eight years to conquer the next peak. Given that three of them have already passed, BTC will reach $100K by 2025. Mike McGlone also expects BTC to return to 2019 highs of $14,000 by the end of this year.

As for the generalized forecast for the coming week, compared to the previous one, it shifted 500 points higher: the main support is expected at $10,500, the resistance at $11,500. The probability of a confident breakout of the $ 12,000 level is still estimated by analysts at only 10%.

 


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Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

 

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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 05 - 09, 2020

Author: StanNordFX   |  Publish date: Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 9:44 AM


First, a review of last week’s events:

  • EUR/USD. The question that we tried to resolve last week was whether this pair will continue its fall or return again to channel 1.1700-1.2010. Experts couldn't give any clear answer then. Their votes were divided as follows: 30% favored the fall of the pair, 30% favored its rise and 40% took a neutral position. As a result, the pair surely did not continue to fall, but it is also difficult to call its movement returning to the channel: having reached the local high at 1.1700 on Thursday, October 01, the pair turned around and completed the five-day period at 1.1715.
    Investors were not particularly impressed by the fact that the Democrats in the US House of Representatives passed legislation on a new package of economic stimulus worth $2.2 trillion, especially since it was previously about $3 trillion-plus. The US labour market data didn't have much impact on anything either. ADP's September Private Sector Employment Report showed an increase to 749K, up from 481K a month ago and a 650K forecast. The number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP), on the contrary, turned out to be less than both the August and forecast values: 661K in September, 1489K in August against the forecast for September 850K.
    Investors were much more impressed by the news of the infection of US President Trump and the first lady with coronavirus. When this information appeared, the US dollar and the Japanese yen went up, but then the question arose, how serious this disease is and how it could affect the economic situation in the United States and in the world. And before at least some clarity appeared, the market paused, and the EUR/USD pair moved to a sideways movement in a narrow range of $ 1.1685-1.1770, within which, as already mentioned, it came to the end of the weekly trading session;
  • GBP/USD. Against the background of Brexit uncertainty, the pair returned to the range where it was already trading on September 15-21 - 1.2805-1.3000, thus confirming the forecast given last week by 35% of analysts, graphical analysis and 15% of oscillators that signaled the pair was oversold. After a jerk up by 230 points, the strength of the bulls dried up, they could not break through the resistance of 1.3000, and the pair completed the five-day period in the area of 1.2935;
  • USD/JPY. The last week cannot be called remarkable for the Japanese currency. Until Friday, the pair moved in a very narrow channel 105.30-105.75, and it was only on the news of the positive test for coronavirus by Donald and Melania Trump that the pair jumped down, reaching 104.95. This movement showed that, in such a critical situation, investors are likely to intuitively prefer yen, considering it a safer protective asset than the dollar. Although, a 70-point drop in the dollar could hardly be considered a major loss. Moreover, later the situation stabilized, the pair went up, and its final chord sounded at the level of 105.35;
  • cryptocurrencies. We started our previous analytical review of the digital market with the phrase: "Another attempt by bitcoin to gain a foothold above the $11,000 mark ended in another failure." the same can be said about the outgoing week. Having bumped their heads against the ceiling of $10,940-10,970, the bulls gave up and the BTC/USD pair rolled back to the $10,400-10,500 zone, which fully confirmed the forecast, which was voted for by the majority of experts (65%). As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it has dropped slightly over the past seven days, from 46 to 41, and is still in the neutral zone.
    According to analyst portal Messari, this is the first time that daily bitcoin candles close above $10,000 for 63 consecutive days. The previous longest series was 62 days and was registered from December 1, 2017 to January 31, 2018, when bitcoin reached an all-time high near $20,000, having risen in price by 100% in two weeks. At the same time, the cryptocurrency was held above $11,000 for 50 days, and above $12,000 for 41 days.
    According to the experts of the WhaleMap analytical service, bitcoin is now prevented from falling below $10,000 by large investors who begin to replenish their reserves as soon as the value of BTC approaches this level. It is for this reason that at the week high, the total capitalization of the crypto market, despite the drop in quotations, grew to $350 billion. However, on October 01-02, another sale of coins dropped it to $330 billion once again.
    The dynamics of the cryptocurrency market is increasingly dependent on the mood in the traditional markets and is subject to changes in the risk appetite of investors. The latter in turn depend on the situation with the coronavirus and the reaction of regulators to it.
    According to experts of Galaxy Digital Capital Management, bitcoin is beginning to be perceived by institutional players as an inflation hedge, that is, as a kind of “insurance” in case the US dollar loses the status of the world reserve currency. Comparing the capitalization of gold (more than 12 trillion dollars) and bitcoins (about 200 billion dollars), analysts of this company conclude that “the situation will level out towards the main cryptocurrency, into which there will be an outflow of investments from the precious metal, which may raise its value 60 times in the future.
    If you look at the results of the first 9 months of 2020, it becomes obvious that the COVID-19 pandemic has already benefited bitcoin. Even despite the panic of late February - early March, the coin has risen in price by about 40% (gold - by 25%). If we take March 13 as the starting point, then during this period the main cryptocurrency has grown 2.75 times (gold - 1.3 times).
    This situation also contributed to the growth of cryptocurrency fans. A study by the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance says about 100 million people already own bitcoin and other coins in the world. In 2018, there were about 35 million of them, that is, three times less. The lion's share of BTC and other coin holders live in North America and Europe, followed by Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region. As of the end of the third quarter of 2020, up to 191 million addresses were registered on cryptocurrency exchanges.

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

  • EUR/USD. 65% of analysts supported by graphical analysis on H4 expect that the dollar will be able to strengthen its position somewhat in the coming days, and the pair will once again test support of 1.1600. This is opposed, respectively, by 35% of experts and graphical analysis on D1, according to which the EUR/USD pair, having returned to the 1.1700-1.2010 range, will continue to move towards its central part and will consolidate in the 1.1800-1.1900 range in the second half of the week.
    Oscillators and trend indicators do not give any signals that are more or less suitable for forecasting. Particularly important macro statistics are not expected these days either. Interest may be caused by the speeches of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell on Tuesday October 6 and his European counterpart Christine Lagarde on Wednesday October 7. The minutes of the US Fed Open Market Committee meeting will be published on the same day.
    However, the main intrigue of the week will undoubtedly remain the health of the Trump presidential couple. If the old enough president of the United States quickly returns to full-time work, it will become a good trump card in his election race. Thus, he will be able to show that he assessed the degree of danger of coronavirus correctly and took adequate measures to combat the pandemic in the United States. If the symptoms of the disease turn out to be severe, this will not only force Trump to curtail the election campaign, but, showing the seriousness of the threat, will turn many doubting voters against him;
  • GBP/USD. Due to the growth of the pair last week, the overwhelming majority of indicators (85%) are colored green. But will this trend continue in the future?
    It is clearly not worth looking for the answer to this question in the readings of the indicators. As of Friday evening October 02, when this forecast is being written, Brexit news remains more than contradictory. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due to meet European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Saturday 03 October. How this meeting will end is anyone's guess so far. And then another factor of uncertainty arrived in time - the infection of Donald and Melania Trump with the COVID-19 virus. That is why the analysts' opinions are distributed as follows: 40% support the growth of the pair, 40% are for its fall and 20% have taken a neutral position. The nearest target of the bears is 1.2675, followed by support in the 1.2500 zone. The bulls' task is to break through the resistance at 1.3000 and return the pair to the echelon 1.3000-1.3200;
  • USD/JPY. Graphic analysis both on H4 and D1 shows the pair's decline to the lowest of the past week in the 105.00 zone, and then another 100 points lower, where it already visited on July 31 and September 21. Resistance in this case will be the level of 105.80.
    After completing this trip to the south, according to the graphical analysis on D1, the pair should return to the zone 105.00-106.00, and go further north by the end of October, to 107.00.
    The bearish sentiment is also supported by 85% of the experts, as well as about 70% of the indicators. Analysts' forecasts are largely influenced by the situation with the coronavirus pandemic in the United States, which has now directly affected the Trump couple. And that's just a month before this country's presidential election. However, this situation can change very quickly, and then the scenario will be realized, for which only 15% of experts have now voted, according to which the pair will go up and quickly reach the zone 106.55-107.00;

  • cryptocurrencies. The number of bitcoins mined exceeded 18.5 million units. Just under 12% of the total issue or less than 2.5 million coins remain available for production, most of which could be mined in the next four years and the last coin in 2140.
    Recall that according to the algorithm established by the creator of bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto, the total amount of coins is 21 million, and halving occurs every four years - the reward for miners is halved. The main task of halving is to control the issue of cryptocurrency and its inflation.
    Bitcoin miners expect a repeat of the rally of the main coin of three years ago. Many market representatives are confident that there are all conditions for the cryptocurrency market to move into a stage of active growth now. It is about snatching the main coin to $20,000.
    The head of the Crypto Quant trading platform, Ki Yong Joo, noted that signals for a return of bullish sentiment to the market began to appear in mid summer, but strong external factors opposed the rise in the value of the coin then. “There is no denying that mining pools are having a major impact on the cryptocurrency market. It is worth remembering the consequences of the halving this May, when the hashrate of the main coin dropped for a while. Growth in such conditions became impossible, so investors and holders of the asset moved to wait-and-see tactics. The situation is completely different now. Miner Position Index (MPI) continues to strengthen. They try to mine as many blocks as possible for maximum rewards. The hashrate of bitcoin is also stable at high rates," Joo said.
    Bloomberg Intelligence chief commodities strategist Mike McGlone expects growth as well. He believes that the first cryptocurrency should be valued at $15,000. He came to such conclusions based on the dynamics of growth in the number of active addresses since 2017. At the same time, he estimates the likelihood of alternative scenarios as low.
    As for the current forecast, almost everything is the same here: the lower bar of the trading range for the BTC/USD pair is $9,500, the main support is $10,000, the main resistance is $11,000. At the same time, the probability of the next attack of bulls to this height, according to experts, is close to 70%, and the probability of consolidation above this level is twice lower.

 

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Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. 

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Cryptonews of the Week

Author: StanNordFX   |  Publish date: Thu, 1 Oct 2020, 5:40 AM


 
- Bitcoin never managed to fall below $10,000. Cryptocurrency “whales” have re-activated after the main cryptocurrency approached this zone last week. The fall lasted only a few hours, and experts of the analytical service WhaleMap believe that large investors were simply waiting for the optimal moment for new investments. “It should be understood that for those who want to buy one coin, a downward correction may mean savings of several hundred dollars, but if we talk about 100 or more BTC, then the amounts become more significant. Large investors decided to take advantage of this and quickly replenished their stocks,” WhaleMap said in a statement.
 
- In the United States, a woman ordered the murder of her husband, offering to pay the killer in bitcoins. Judging by the ad, the customer was going to pay 12 coins for criminal services. She posted an ad on the search for the killer on the darknet, stating that she wanted to take the life of her husband, but could not do it on her own. A few days later, a man responded to the ad, who agreed to fulfill the order.
All this happened back in 2016, when the cost of 12 BTC coins was approximately $5,000. The woman transferred the funds, but her criminal order was never fulfilled. Before an in-person meeting with the killer, she asked several times why her husband was still alive, which is why the killer constantly had to look for explanations.
The killer turned out to be an undercover policeman, and, as a result, in January 2019, law enforcement officers found out about the woman's whereabouts and detained her.
The most interesting thing is that information about the correspondence of the customer with the alleged killer was recently released by a hacker who hacked the law enforcement authority’s resource.
 
- Bitcoin finished last week in the $10,750 zone. According to analyst portal Messari, this is the first time that daily bitcoin candles close above $10,000 for 63 consecutive days. The previous longest series was 62 days and was registered from December 1, 2017 to January 31, 2018, when bitcoin reached an all-time high near $20,000, having risen in price by 100% in two weeks. At the same time, the cryptocurrency was held above $11,000 for 50 days, and above $12,000 for 41 days.
 
- Bitcoin miners expect a repeat of the rally of the main coin of three years ago. Many market representatives are confident that there are all conditions for the cryptocurrency market to move into a stage of active growth now. It is about snatching the main coin to $20,000.
The head of the Crypto Quant trading platform, Ki Yong Joo, noted that signals for a return of bullish sentiment to the market began to appear in mid-summer, but strong external factors opposed the rise in the value of the coin then. The correlation with the stock market and gold was constantly changing, which is why the positive trend did not develop. Roughly the same situation was observed in the first half of 2017. Then the main coin was at values lower than the current ones, but from the middle of autumn it began to grow.
“There is no denying that mining pools are having a major impact on the cryptocurrency market. It is worth remembering the consequences of the halving this May, when the hashrate of the main coin dropped for a while. Growth in such conditions became impossible, so investors and holders of the asset moved to wait-and-see tactics. The situation is completely different now. Miner Position Index (MPI) continues to strengthen. They try to mine as many blocks as possible for maximum rewards. The hashrate of bitcoin is also stable at high rates," Joo said.
 
- US Fortune-500 medical services company Universal Health Services (UHS) became the victim of a ransomware attack. This is reported by the news site ZDNet. Some UHS hospitals were forced to switch to work without using computer systems, employees said. The problems affected UHS medical centers in North Carolina and Texas. Reddit users have also reported similar incidents in Arizona, Florida, and California.
According to some unconfirmed reports, UHS systems were attacked by the Ryuk virus, which, according to one version, is developed by Russian crypto hackers.
 
- The number of bitcoins mined exceeded 18.5 million units. A little less than 12% of the total issue, or less than 2.5 million coins, remains available for mining, most of which can be mined in the next four years.
Recall that according to the algorithm established by the creator of bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto, the total amount of coins is 21 million, and halving occurs every four years - the reward for miners is halved. The main task of halving is to control the issue of cryptocurrency and its inflation. Thus, according to calculations, the last coin could be issued in 2140.
 
- Galaxy Digital Capital Management, an investment firm, notes in its September report that bitcoin could rise 60 times, becoming a more attractive asset than gold. Analysts draw attention to the fact that companies, whose shares are traded on the Wall Street stock exchange, and such legendary investors as billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, have already begun to invest in this cryptocurrency.
Experts at Galaxy Digital Capital Management draw attention to the fact that institutional players are beginning to perceive bitcoin as an inflationary hedge, that is, as a kind of "insurance" in case the US dollar loses the status of the world reserve currency.
Comparing the capitalization of gold (more than $12 trillion) and bitcoins (about $200 billion), analysts come to the conclusion that “the situation will level out towards the main cryptocurrency, into which there will be an outflow of investments from the precious metal.
 
- A study by the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance says that around 100 million people in the world already own cryptocurrencies. In 2018, when a similar study was conducted, about 35 million people owned bitcoin and other coins, that is, three times less.
As of the end of the third quarter of 2020, up to 191 million addresses were registered on cryptocurrency exchanges. At the same time, analysts are not able to establish the number of anonymous wallets, which they pointed out in their report.
But it was found that up to 40% of cryptocurrency holders show periodic activity. The lion's share of BTC and other coin holders live in North America and Europe, followed by Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region. 
 
- Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Commodities Strategist Mike McGlone believes the first cryptocurrency should be valued at $15,000. He came to such conclusions based on the dynamics of growth in the number of active addresses since 2017, writes the Cointelegraph agency. The analyst continues to be optimistic about the outlook for Bitcoin and believes that the first cryptocurrency is leading the "paradigm shift towards digital money and means of savings." At the same time, he estimates the likelihood of alternative scenarios as low.
Recall that at the end of June McGlone predicted a spurt of the first cryptocurrency to the resistance level of $13,000, and a little earlier he announced the inevitability of overcoming the level of $20,000 by the end of this year.
 
 
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 28 - October 02, 2020

Author: StanNordFX   |  Publish date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020, 4:47 AM


First, a review of last week’s events:

  • EUR/USD. The overwhelming majority of experts (75%), supported by the oscillators indicating that this pair is overbought, expected its correction to the south. The argument was that the pair ended the week near the strong resistance zone of 1.1900 on Friday, September 18. The above scenario came true 100%, and finally breaking through the mid-term support at 1.1700, the EUR/USD pair flew downward last week, finding the local bottom at 1.1610.
    There are several macro-reasons for the growth of the dollar and the fall of the euro. First, it is the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in the EU countries. Secondly, skepticism about the prospects for the recovery of the American economy. Fed Chairman Robert Powell has once again urged the government to discuss the issue of additional incentives in the framework of QE. We must not lose sight of the situation with the growth of the yield on US government bonds. All this made investors once again turn their backs on the stock market and commodities and think of the dollar as a protective asset. As a result, active buying of the American currency followed, the DXY index, reflecting the value of the USD against a basket of major currencies, went up sharply, reaching the height of 94.70, and the EUR/USD pair finished at 1.1625;
  • GBP/USD. First, a few words about a non-standard pair, BTC/GBP. Rather, about what will happen to bitcoin if the Bank of England decides to lower the interest rate to negative values. Recall that at the last meeting, on September 17, the Bank's management did not adjust this rate, but it became clear from the published transcript that this is not excluded and could happen in the foreseeable future.
    The appearance of such a news report has not been overlooked in the crypto sphere. Billionaire and bitcoin investor Tyler Winklevoss stated immediately that “if the Bank of England decides to move to negative interest rates, they will pay extra if you borrow money from them. It is difficult to imagine a better motive for investors to start taking out such loans and investing in bitcoins for a long time."
    Great prospect for Winklevoss and the core cryptocurrency. But so far this has not happened, let's return to the GBP/USD chart. On Monday-Tuesday, the pound was retreating facing the American currency onslaught, however, the pair moved to a sideways movement in the second half of the week. Despite the fact that the UK, like France, reported a record increase in the number of infected with the coronavirus, the new government employment program helped, unlike the euro, to keep the British currency from further falling, allowing it to complete the five-day period at 1.2745;
  • USD/JPY. As expected by 40% of analysts, the pair was unable to gain a foothold in the 104.00 zone, after which it went up 155 points. The week's results showed that investors at this stage decided to consider the dollar as the main protective asset, not gold or yen. Evidence of this is the sharp change in the correlation of the Japanese currency with the volatility of US stock indices, which determine the rise or fall of risk sentiment. The result of the last five-day period was the return of the pair within the two-month channel 105.20-106.55 and the final chord at 105.57;
  • cryptocurrencies. Another attempt of bitcoin to gain a foothold above the $11,000 mark ended in another failure. As is often the case, the leap was taken over the weekend when the world's major exchanges were closed. But as soon as the traditional markets opened, the BTC/USD pair went down. Moreover, it is not entirely clear with what bitcoin correlates more, with risky stock assets or with such a defensive asset as gold. Everything was falling last week, but only the dollar rose in price. Therefore, it would probably be more correct to talk about the inverse correlation between the main cryptocurrency and the main world currency. (Although, it is clear anyway).
    By the evening of Friday, September 25, gold dipped 5%, the S&P500 index lost 2.5%, the Dow Jones - 3.5%, and BTC - 3.2%. Moreover, on Wednesday, at its low, bitcoin fell to the level of $10.125, losing 7.5%.
    According to the proponents of correlation with the stock market, the reason for the fall in the  BTC/USD rate  was a decline in share prices due to the Fed's statement that the US economy is still in a deep crisis, and because of another jump in the incidence of COVID-19. The news from China that the People's Bank of China may block the accounts of traders related to OTC trade for 5 years as part of the fight against money laundering cryptocurrencies, played its role as well.
    Naturally, bitcoin is also under pressure from the ongoing sale of this cryptocurrency by miners. Block miners are still trying to get rid of savings, although not on the same scale as they were at the end of August. Moreover, according to a number of experts, miners now represent only one of two factors that put serious pressure on bitcoin. The second strong factor is the exchanges. Commissions on them are a kind of tax for the market, which is why miners rush to sell their assets as quickly as possible, trying to pay as low commission fees for transactions as possible. Such an intersection of basic factors, according to renowned analyst Willy Wu, does not allow bitcoin to get out of the narrow framework between 10 and 11 thousand dollars.
    The total capitalization of the crypto market, having fallen in a seven-day period from $355 billion, returned to the level of two weeks ago in the area from $335 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is almost the same as before, at 46 (49 a week ago). But the bitcoin dominance index rose by 1.4%, and this despite the fall in the value of this coin. This fact only indicates that the sale of altcoins is going even faster. So, for example, if the BTC/USD pair lost 3.2% in seven days, ethereum (ETH/USD) fell by as much as 10%.

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

  • EUR/USD. It is difficult to predict whether the correction of this pair last week will develop into a long-term trend, or it will return to the limits of channel 1.1700-1.2010. But it is clear that a further sell-off of the European currency and a rise in the US dollar as a protective asset could cause the stock and commodities markets to collapse. This will be facilitated by an increase in the yield of US government bonds as well. Some forecasts suggest it could rise from the current 1.2% to 1.5%.
    On the other hand, the largest multinational corporations in the United States do not need a strong dollar at all, since this will lead to higher prices for their goods and, as a result, decrease in sales and profits.
    The upcoming presidential elections are catching up even more fog, since their results could radically affect the monetary policy of the US government, as well as Washington's relations with Brussels and Beijing.
    In general, the situation is more than ambiguous. Therefore, the experts' votes were distributed as follows: 30% - for the fall of the EUR/USD pair, 30% - for its growth, and 40% took a neutral position.
    As for technical analysis, the dollar wins with a clear advantage. Graphical analysis, 100% of trend indicators on H4, 80% on D1, and 85% of oscillators on both timeframes have voted for its growth and further decline in the pair. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is oversold. Support at levels 1.1400, 1.1285, 1.1240 and 1.1165. Resistance levels are 1.1700, 1.1765, 1.1900 and 1.2010.
    As for the macro events of the coming week, it is worth paying attention to data on the consumer market of the US, Germany, and Eurozone, which will be released on Wednesday 30 September. It will become known on the same day how much the US GDP fell in the second quarter of 2020. And of course, do not forget that traditionally on the first Friday of the month, October 02, the data on the US labor market will become known, including the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector of this country (NFP);
  • GBP/USD. Against the backdrop of the pandemic, unsettled Brexit conditions, weak economic data and the prospect of negative interest rates, the British currency can hardly boast of strong, impenetrable support. That is why 65% of experts believe that after a temporary respite, the pound will go down again. 85% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on D1 fully agree with this. The nearest target of the bears is the 1.2500 zone.
    An alternative point of view is supported by 35% of analysts, graphical analysis and 15% of oscillators, signaling that the pair is oversold. The bulls' task is to break through the resistance at 1.3000 and return the pair to the echelon 1.3000-1.3200;

  • USD/JPY. 60% of analysts, as well as the graphical analysis on D1, still hope that the yen will be able to play back the last week's losses and return the pair to the level of 104.00. At the same time, they, as before, do not exclude that it can reach first the low of 09 March 101.17, and then the psychologically important level of 100.00 in the medium term.
    As for the remaining 40% of experts, supported by technical and graphical analysis on H4, they expect the pair to at least rise to the upper border of the 105.20-106.55 corridor, and possibly test the 107.00 height;
  • cryptocurrencies. First a few words about long-term forecasts. So, according to Reuters, the EU authorities are preparing to introduce new rules for regulating the crypto sector by 2024. And, most likely, they will be formulated in such a way as to provide carte blanche to the new "crypto-euro", and the advantages of the existing digital assets will be reduced to zero. Financial officials will try to take full control of the crypto market, which was created precisely in order to avoid their iron grip. And his supporters will now have to look for ways to get around the traps of regulators. The main problem is the withdrawal of crypto coins to fiat. It is at this stage that the owner of the capital is identified. And here, according to forecasts of a number of experts, the newly created crypto-offshore companies in the face of developing African and Asian countries will be included in the transaction chain.
    And a little more about the distant future. Unlike Reuters, some analysts are painting a much brighter outlook for bitcoin. According to Bloomberg Chief Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone, the limited number of BTC coins and the growing level of adoption will lead to a gradual steady increase in its value. “I don't see what could stop bitcoin from doing what it has been doing successfully over the past 10 years, namely, grow,” McGlone said. Bitcoin's fixed supply, according to the strategist, makes it a better means of saving than gold, the total number of which remains unknown. McGlone named the growing number of active bitcoin addresses and the increasing flow of BTC to regulated exchanges as two main factors proving the growing demand for the main cryptocurrency. Another indicator pointing to the growing maturity of bitcoin as an asset class is the decrease in its volatility compared to the Nasdaq index.
    The results of a study conducted by Cane Island Digital Research also play in favor of this Bloomberg forecast. So, according to estimates of its analysts, the total number of bitcoins in circulation is actually much less than the planned emission volume. Analysts of the agency concluded that since 2010, about 4% of the total amount of available assets are lost annually in the bitcoin blockchain. “So,” their report said, “the current available offer will be about 13.9 million coins, far below the expected total offer of 18.3 million.” Thus, for the first time since May 2020, irretrievable losses of this cryptocurrency exceed the rate of production of new coins. Most of this dramatic change is due to the May halving, which reduced the miner reward of 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC per block.
    As for the current forecast, the lower bar of the trading range for the BTC/USD pair remains unchanged at $9,500, with the main support at $10,000. At the same time, 65% of experts believe that the bulls will make another attempt to break through the resistance of $11,000. However, only 20% of experts agree that the pair will be able to reach the height of $12,000 in the coming week.

 

NordFX Analytical Group

 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. 

https://nordfx.com/

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